Four wallets, one operation: twenty days accumulating, one day to exit

Wallets 1 and 2 bought P0 steadily and funnelled every token to Wallet 3, which liquidated the bulk in six sales on 29 July between 19:47 and 19:57. A fourth wallet had already sold a 1M slice that morning, and got a far better price for it. In total the cluster bought 25.98M P0 for 994 SOL and sold every one of those tokens back for 774 SOL, a realised loss of 220 SOL.

Every token bought was sold, 25,984,201 in and 25,984,201 out, so this is a closed book rather than a snapshot of an open position. They lost on the way out, not the way in: the cluster paid an average of 38.3 SOL per million P0 and realised 29.8 on average when it sold.

How the tokens moved

Wallet 1 never held a position: it buys and forwards inside the same transaction, paying roughly 0.2% to a router. Wallet 2 is the accumulator, Wallet 3 the main seller, and Wallet 4 a distribution wallet that sold a 1M slice hours ahead of the rest.

The exit, transaction by transaction

Wallet 4 broke its 1M into 126 small sales between 10:10 and 10:57 and averaged 50.3 SOL per million. Wallet 3 then pushed 25M through in six sales after 19:47 and averaged 29.0 below what the cluster had paid. Same token, same day, opposite outcomes.

The last sale is the tell: the second-largest block, 5.93M P0, went out at the worst rate of the day: 21.3 SOL per million, down 42% from the first fill nine minutes earlier and 58% below what Wallet 4 achieved that morning.

Buys and sells over the P0 price

The price P0 actually traded at for this cluster, read off their own 800 fills in the order they happened. Because every purchase precedes every sale, the line is blue while they are accumulating and red once they start selling. Hover any point for the trade behind it.

Laid out this way the mistake is plain. 67% of everything they bought was paid for above their own average, and when the exit came only 3.8% of the volume they sold cleared that line. The red phase opens well above it, at the 49 to 52 where Wallet 4 worked its 1M out in small pieces, then falls through the dashed line and keeps going: all six of Wallet 3's sells land below it, ending at 21.3.

Every wallet, every trade

Wallet 3's P0 column is net of the 20.80M it received from Wallet 2 and the 1M it passed to Wallet 4; its SOL column nets 220.57 spent buying against 723.83 received selling. The P0 column sums to exactly zero, because every token bought was sold.

Every one of the 800 buy and sell transactions is listed below, filterable by wallet and side, with the same rows also in all_p0_trades.csv. Each carries a basis flag marking which SOL figures are solid: 132 measured (all six of Wallet 3's sales and all 126 of Wallet 4's, read from chain) and 668 derived (the purchases whose SOL legs the exports omitted).

Every transaction

All 800 P0 buys and sells across the four wallets, oldest first. SOL basis: M measured from chain, D derived from the P0 side at the prevailing rate. Signatures link to Solscan.